In this episode of Founders Club, host Oliver Graf interviews Lon Welsh, one of the most influential figures in the Colorado real estate market. With over 750 agents, $2.8 billion in annual sales, and multiple exits—including one to Compass—Lon brings unmatched experience and insight into what it takes to succeed in real estate regardless of the market cycle.

In today’s market, with interest rates rising, inventory tightening, and agent confidence shaking, the question on everyone’s mind is: How do you do more deals when the market is slowing down?

Lon answers that question with proven strategies that are working right now, including one that almost no agents are using.

Who is Lon Welsh?

Before diving into real estate, Lon worked in corporate finance and as a strategy consultant for Deloitte and Accenture. In 2004, he launched Your Castle Real Estate, which quickly grew into Colorado’s largest independent brokerage. Since then, he’s founded a title company (later acquired by Compass), written over a dozen real estate books, and now leads Ironton Capital, a private real estate investment firm that helps clients build wealth passively.

With over two decades in the trenches, Lon has seen multiple market cycles—and he’s built systems that help agents and investors not only survive, but thrive in any market.

The Market Is Down… But Lon’s Still Closing Deals

While many agents are sitting on the sidelines waiting for the market to “come back,” Lon is actively helping agents get listings and close deals in creative, highly effective ways. His approach doesn’t rely on gimmicks or massive ad budgets—it’s about outsmarting the market, not outspending it.

Here are some of the key takeaways and strategies Lon shared during the interview.

💡 1. Target Expired and Withdrawn Listings — Nobody Else Is

One of the most actionable takeaways from the episode was Lon’s strategy around expired and withdrawn listings. He calls it one of the biggest missed opportunities in today’s market.

“Over 50% of withdrawn listings in Denver come back to the market within 12 months,” Lon explained. “And most agents aren’t following up with them.”

🔑 Here’s the Strategy:

• Step 1: Pull a list of expired and withdrawn listings in your area.

• Step 2: Create a 12-touch marketing campaign (direct mail, emails, or even door knocking).

• Step 3: Educate the seller on how your approach is different and why their home didn’t sell the first time.

• Step 4: Be consistent. Lon recommends budgeting $40 per lead per year—and notes that the return can be massive.

This is a goldmine that few agents are mining. Sellers are frustrated, but still motivated. With the right approach, you can be the agent they choose the second time around.

💡 2. Recruiting Agents by Solving Their Real Problems

For team leaders and brokers, Lon shared a powerful strategy for recruiting and retaining top agents, especially during downturns.

Instead of cold-calling with offers, Lon focuses on solving agent pain points through education-based marketing.

Here’s how he does it:

• Identify agents struggling in the market (via production stats or conversations).

• Host classes specifically designed to solve their problems (like “How to Succeed in a Down Market”).

• Use those events as soft recruiting opportunities where agents get to know you and your value proposition.

• Follow up by offering personalized solutions based on what they shared during the class.

Lon even wrote a book on AI for Realtors and uses it as a recruiting tool. Education is the hook, value is the close.

💡 3. Want More Listings? Work Your Database Like a Pro

Lon has studied hundreds of high-producing agents and identified two consistent habits:

1. They build and nurture large databases.

2. They consistently use a CRM to stay top of mind.

“The biggest predictor of an agent’s income is the size of their database,” Lon said. “And whether they actually use their CRM.”

Most agents focus on shiny new lead sources—cold ads, social media, or Zillow—but neglect their warm list of people who already know, like, and trust them.

🔁 Lon’s Relationship Marketing Formula:

• 6–8 touches per year minimum

• Mix of calls, texts, emails, events, and handwritten notes

• Base it on what you actually enjoy doing (golf, skiing, happy hours, lunches, etc.)

• Stay consistent and track your outreach in a CRM

Lon’s message here is clear: Before you chase strangers, make sure you’re maximizing your existing relationships.

💡 4. Build a Real “Why” to Stay Consistent

One of the most powerful insights from the episode wasn’t tactical—it was psychological.

Lon explained that most agents make what they need to make, not what they want to make. Why? Because they haven’t connected their business goals to a deeper personal “why.”

“People will work harder and show up consistently if they know why they’re doing it. A goal like ‘make $100K’ is meaningless unless it’s tied to something real—like sending your kid to college or retiring early.”

This is a powerful reminder to dig deeper. If you’re struggling with consistency, motivation, or follow-through—maybe it’s not about time or talent. Maybe it’s about clarity.

💡 5. How to Succeed in a Market Crash (or Before One)

What would Lon do if the market crashed tomorrow? He answered that too:

“I’d do exactly what I did in 2009. I analyzed 40 condo HOAs in Denver, found the best ones, and bought 140 units—some for $30K—and sold them years later for $180K.”

His advice? Be ready to buy while others freeze. Learn how to underwrite deals, build your financing relationships now, and stay liquid. Crashes create millionaires—for those who are prepared.

💡 6. Use AI to Save Time and Win Listings

Lon and his team are also early adopters of AI tools. One in particular he recommends is called Fixer (FYX.ai) — an email tool that organizes your inbox and drafts responses based on your writing style.

They also use ChatGPT to:

• Roleplay listing presentations

• Write mailer content for expired listings

• Create local market scripts

• Build automated nurture campaigns

His advice? Use AI to remove friction in your business so you can focus on the high-value tasks: relationships and closings.

💡 7. Want to Scale? Avoid the “Valley of Death”

For brokerage owners, Lon shared a golden insight:

“If you have under 15 agents, it’s a fun little fraternity. Over 100 agents, you have staff and systems. But if you’re in the middle—say 40 to 70—it’s a nightmare. That’s the Valley of Death.”

His solution? Either scale quickly or acquire another brokerage that gets you out of the middle zone. And when you’re buying a team, focus on cultural fit first, not just numbers.

🎯 Final Thoughts from Lon

“Just show up every day. Ask good questions. Listen more than you talk. Solve real problems. That’s what it takes.”

Whether you’re an agent trying to grow your income, a team leader building a business, or an investor navigating this market—the same principles apply.

Don’t wait for perfect market conditions. The opportunity is now—if you’re willing to outwork, outthink, and outfollow-up the competition.

📘 Want More from Lon Welsh?

🎁 Get Lon’s free book on passive investing here:
👉 https://irontoncapital.com/foundersclub

🗓 Book a strategy session with Lon at:
👉 https://irontoncapital.com

🎥 Watch the Full Episode on Founders Club

If you’re ready to learn from a broker who’s built a $2.8 billion empire and still closes deals in any market, this episode is a must-watch.

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